Challenges of Wheat Self-Sufficiency in Egypt

تحديات الاكتفاء الذاتي للقمح في مصر

Abstract

 Despite all the efforts made to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat, it has become clear that there are difficulties that have hindered this over the years. In Egypt during the time period (2010-2023), and the future situation until the year 2030, the research used the descriptive and quantitative analysis method, to identify the expected future scenarios for the wheat self-sufficiency rate until the year 2030, and the most prominent research results were: It was revealed from the study of variables related to and influencing The apparent gap in wheat in Egypt, and consequently in the self-sufficiency rate, the most important of which is production and national consumption of the crop, shows that national consumption increases at a growth rate greater than its counterpart in total production, as the average difference of this difference was about 3.98% annually, and thus the annual difference during the study period was about 388 thousand tons. It is expected that there will be a gap of about 14.59 million tons in 2030, and the self-sufficiency rate of wheat in Egypt will reach about 45.96%. The research recommends constantly reconsidering the supply price because of its effects on the self-sufficiency rate, as setting a remunerative indicative price for the farmer before planting the crop will encourage farmers to grow wheat, considering the competition of other wheat crops at the same time of planting, such as beets, clover.